DROUGHT INTENSITY AND ITS REGIONAL VARIATION IN MAHARASHTRA 1901-2018

Abstract

Maharashtra has experienced repeated droughts throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, but the intensity and regional pattern have changed markedly. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-12) calculated from IMD daily gridded rainfall data for 1901-2018, this paper identifies fifteen years when at least one division recorded severe to extreme dryness (SPI ≤ -1.5). Marathwada (Aurangabad division) suffered severe or extreme drought in 30 of the 118 years, Vidarbha divisions in 22-24 years, while Konkan faced such conditions only three times and Pune division eleven times. Before 1980, Marathwada had a severe/extreme event roughly once every 5-6 years; after 1980 the frequency rose to once every 2.5 years. The same shift is visible in Vidarbha, whereas western Maharashtra and Konkan divisions show almost no increase. The paper argues that the sharp rise in borewell-dependent irrigation and water-intensive crops in the rain-shadow region has greatly reduced the buffer against monsoon failure, turning ordinary dry spells into major crises. Simple policy measures (restricting new borewells in over-exploited areas, completing canal networks, and creating a permanent drought mitigation fund) could reduce future damage without waiting for the monsoon to improve.